The report shows that November new-vehicle retail sales are projected to come in at 931,900 units, which represent a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 12.9 million units. November is expected to reflect the highest retail selling rate since January 2008.
“Sales have strengthened each week in November, which bodes well for a strong finish to the month and the year,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of global automotive operations at JD Power and Associates. “We expect healthy sales in December, as the industry continues to recover from Sandy and leads into its year-end sales events.”
Total fleet sales in November are expected to hold steady below a 17% share of total sales, which is the same level as October but lower than the 18% share last November.
LMC Automotive is maintaining the 2012 forecast for total light-vehicle sales in the US at 14.4 million units and the forecast for retail sales at 11.7 million units. While the forecast still rounds to the same numbers as it did in October, the overall outlook is more favourable.
The US sales forecast for 2013 remains stable at 15 million units for total light-vehicles and 12.2 million for retail sales, but represents a slower growth rate of 4 % from 2012. There continues to be the possibility of accelerating the growth in 2013, as the current level of uncertainty is expected to be reduced in the first half of the year.
“The irrepressible need and willingness of consumers to replace aging vehicles is stronger than the effects of natural disasters and fiscal turmoil both here and abroad,” said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive.
“A sustained recovery pace in auto sales is expected over the next six months, barring any fiscal cliff hangover, but the medium-term forecast is still dependent on more pronounced economic activity and growth.”
